AGP Executive Report

Rates & Oil Watch: US stock futures are flat as investors weigh Fed Minutes and a 20Y bond auction, while Brent pushes above $92 amid US-Iran risk. Energy Bills: Britain’s energy price cap is forecast to rise ~4% in October, lifting winter bills to about £1,729, with Middle East-driven gas volatility overwhelming VAT relief. Commodities: Silver trades around $63.26/oz, down on the day but up sharply over a year, with industrial demand still a key swing factor. Auto Outlook (Malaysia): HLIB expects national OEMs (Perodua, Proton) to keep sales momentum in 2H 2026, while non-national rivals face pricing pressure; July TIV rose 5% y/y and EV sales hit 6,900 units. Robotaxi & Trade: Waymo’s Ojai rides highlight how robotaxis may accelerate Chinese auto entry—tariffs still loom, but demand is strong enough to keep orders moving. AI Capital & Workplace Impact: Global corporate AI investment hit $489.6B in 2025; meanwhile, a US survey finds AI is increasingly used in layoff decisions, sometimes without human review. Healthcare Market Pulse: New forecasts keep rolling in—medical imaging, tubing, radiation safety, and neuro/nerve repair segments all show steady growth trajectories. Corporate Moves: Critical Metals updates its European Lithium acquisition terms; Amer Sports lifts 2026 revenue guidance to 24% after a strong quarter; Xiaomi profits fall again as memory costs squeeze margins.

AI Chip Momentum: Cerebras unveiled the CS-4 AI accelerator, claiming up to 30x faster tokens-per-second-per-user than GPUs and better throughput per watt, reinforcing the push toward custom silicon. Market Rates & Tech Pressure: Wall Street slid as the 30-year Treasury yield jumped to a 19-year high, hitting rate-sensitive tech while oil prices rose on US-Iran tensions. Energy Risk Premium: Oil climbed for a fourth straight day as Strait of Hormuz supply-route fears returned, with Brent near $91 and WTI near $85. Copper Supply/Policy Shock: Saxo warned the US holds close to 70% of visible exchange copper inventory, with tariff timing and China demand shaping where metal “sits.” Housing & REIT Credit: Vivmark Residential got an S&P Global upgrade to ‘A’ with stable outlook after its merger, signaling improved access to capital. Retail Read-Through: Home Depot beat expectations on steady demand for smaller home-repair projects, even as the housing market stays “frozen.” Corporate Watchlist: Klarna shares plunged after trimmed guidance tied to weaker Germany retail sentiment; Broadcom’s AI outlook remains a key 2027 catalyst. Commodities Weather: Dairy prices rose at Global Dairy Trade amid El Niño-linked supply concerns, while pork showed mixed signals for producers and shoppers.

Medical Tech Forecasts: The Business Research Company projects rapid expansion across diagnostics and devices, including molecular diagnostics for STDs rising from $3.67B (2025) to $4.07B (2026, 10.7% CAGR), microneedle drug delivery from $5.86B to $6.92B (18.1% CAGR), and mobile ECG from $121.39B to $131.1B (8.0% CAGR). Healthcare Delivery & Monitoring: Growth themes repeat in microneedle flu vaccines ($1.66B to $1.82B), micropumps ($2.32B to $2.69B, 15.9% CAGR), and medical wireless alarm systems ($1.42B to $1.66B, 16.8% CAGR). Aerospace/Defense Drones: MarketsandMarkets forecasts BVLOS UAV market growth to $25.32B by 2030 (from $15.36B in 2025, 10.5% CAGR), led by North America and driven by autonomy and detect-and-avoid. Energy Infrastructure: MarketsandMarkets pegs transformers at $88.48B by 2030 (6.5% CAGR) as grids modernize and renewables scale. AI/Telematics Patent: Cycurion adds a U.S. patent for fleet driver analytics, aiming to expand its Digital Ally platform into a telematics market projected to nearly $199B by 2034.

Flooding Watch (Philippines): Olongapo City saw water levels under three bridges hit evacuation levels amid heavy habagat rains, with flooding reported near markets and key roads as PAGASA forecasts 50–100mm daily through Aug. 19. Grain Marketing (US Ag): Global Ag Risk Solutions CEO David Sullivan says producers should track cost per bushel—not just cost per acre—to judge profitability when flooding disrupts seeding and yields. AI-Leverage Risk (Markets): A reported $35bn AI trading loss highlights how leverage can turn a winning strategy into a fast drawdown once market conditions flip. Wall Street & Rates (US): US indexes slipped as investors waited for big-box retailer earnings; oil rose on Iran-deal skepticism, while long-dated yields stayed a key pressure point. Fed Odds (Prediction Markets): Polymarket/Kalshi/Myriad converge on ~74% odds the Fed holds rates in September. Data Center Water (Australia): Water Services Association of Australia urges a mandatory national water framework for data centers as AI boosts demand and approvals. Japan Outlook (Earnings): Japan Inc. raised full-year profit expectations on AI and chips, while companies tied to power transmission and AI infrastructure signal gains. Property Risk (Hong Kong): UBS warns the HK property recovery may cool as AI disruptions, slower inflows, and new supply add risks. Energy & Power (NZ): Mercury lifted hydro-driven guidance and dividend outlook, funding new generation while data-center investment pressures the grid. Commodities (Tin): Shaw and Partners flags tin as a tight, tightening market, spotlighting select ASX names. Housing (US): NAHB/Wells Fargo sentiment ticked up to 35 in August, but builder confidence remains weak under high mortgage rates and costs.

Monsoon Flooding in the Philippines: Heavy habagat rains pushed bridge water levels in Olongapo to evacuation levels, with flooding reported near markets and major roads; PAGASA forecasts 50–100mm daily in Zambales, raising near-term disruption risk for local commerce. New Zealand Inflation Watch: ASB and Westpac flagged rent inflation easing to 0.1% and energy prices steady, but both still see the OCR potentially rising toward 3.25%, keeping rate-path uncertainty alive. Gold Gains on Softer Fed Bets: Gold rebounded toward $4,400/oz as expectations for a September hike cooled, supported by a weaker dollar and lower Treasury yields. China Growth Concerns: July data showed retail sales and industrial production missing forecasts, while fixed-asset investment fell, with extreme weather cited as a drag—markets may stay cautious on demand recovery. US Rates Outlook: A Reuters poll expects the Fed to hold through year-end, though oil-price pressure and policy dissent keep one hike priced in. UK Housing Pressure: Rightmove reported the biggest August house-price drop since 2018, cutting its growth forecast to 0% to -2%, signaling a tougher seller environment. AI Infrastructure Capex: Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta raised AI capex guidance again, reinforcing demand for power and data-center buildouts. Semiconductor Momentum: Global Unichip hit an all-time high after a surge in July sales tied to AI chip demand, highlighting continued strength in AI-linked supply chains. Corporate Deal Update: American Water and Essential Utilities said the HSR waiting period for their merger has expired, with closing targeted for early 2027. Market Forecasts (Healthcare & Tech): Multiple reports project steady long-run growth across medical nutrition, peptide therapeutics, and genitourinary drugs, while satellite ground stations and medical device services also show strong forecast trajectories.

Japan Growth Watch: Japan’s April-June GDP rose at a slower-than-expected annualised 1.1% (0.3% quarter-on-quarter), with private consumption flat and capital spending down 1.2%, while exports held up on US hybrid-vehicle demand and AI-related semiconductor equipment. New Zealand Inflation Signal: NZ food inflation eased, with food prices up 1.9% year-on-year to July, while fuel fell month-on-month—an important read ahead of the 2 Sept RBNZ decision. NZ Labour Market / Election Backdrop: A NZ Adviser-style review flags broker lending momentum, while another analysis notes unemployment is higher than in 2023 and may rise further into November, with inflation lower—shaping the pre-election economic narrative. UK Housing Cooling: Rightmove says August asking prices fell 2.0% (£7,360) month-on-month, the biggest August drop since 2018, and it cut its 2026 forecast to flat-to-down as mortgage and tax fears bite. Australia Tax Shock for Renters: Labor’s negative gearing reforms could cost some Sydney tenants up to $24,700 a year, pushing demand toward pricier new builds. Energy & Commodities: Illinois farmers warn high energy costs are squeezing margins, while covert Strait of Hormuz oil flows are helping keep Brent in the $80–90 range. AI/Markets: Wall Street’s AI trade stays dominant, but fund rotations show selectivity—hedge funds trimmed Broadcom and added Taiwan Semiconductor.

Retail & Rates Watch: US markets softened after July retail sales fell 0.6% m/m and Michigan consumer sentiment slid to 51, keeping inflation jitters alive even as core CPI cooled—setting up a key earnings week for Walmart, Target and Home Depot. AI Infrastructure Finance: Nvidia unveiled a plan to help channel up to $500B into AI infrastructure, while Goldman Sachs sees global AI investment near $1T in 2026, with spending staying heavy into 2028. Shipping Profit Boost: Maersk raised 2026 guidance again as port congestion and tighter container capacity pushed freight rates higher. Crypto Volatility: XRP rebounded above $1 after briefly slipping, with Peter Brandt saying he’d rather hold Bitcoin. Food & Commodities: Black Sea export disruptions are lifting wheat prices and reshuffling import demand, with USDA raising some export forecasts. UK Cost-of-Living: Another heatwave risk and higher UK energy bills threaten to re-ignite inflation pressure. India Equities: Analysts see earnings-driven upside in select Indian names, while Equitree CIOs favor small/microcaps over expensive midcaps.

US Macro: Retail sales fell 0.6% in July (biggest drop in over a year) while inflation eased but prices stayed high, adding to worries that consumer momentum is cooling. Markets: The S&P 500 slipped from record highs as investors weighed weaker data and Middle East tensions; chip and AI-linked names also wobbled after “beat-and-raise” expectations ran hot. Energy & Geopolitics: Iran-related Strait of Hormuz disruption kept oil sensitive, with the IEA cutting 2026 supply forecasts and traders watching shipping risk closely. AI Infrastructure: Data centers are projected to surge in power demand, while grid delays push firms toward on-site generation; one research team claims a platinum durability breakthrough could help. Crypto Flows: Chainlink jumped on sharply higher spot volume and derivatives activity, while Ethereum’s outlook hinges on key resistance levels as ETF flows turned negative. Corporate/Policy: ICE reversed a sole-source $125M Thomson Reuters surveillance deal, moving to competition; meanwhile, Eli Lilly’s GLP-1 results outpaced Novo as legal fights over ad claims heat up. Emerging Markets FX: Morgan Stanley laid out three Egyptian pound scenarios tied to oil and Hormuz reopening odds.

AI IPO Valuation Watch: Anthropic’s reported 2028 revenue target of $190–$200B is driving how bankers price its potential IPO, with investors using forward enterprise value-to-revenue multiples rather than today’s $47B run rate. Consumer Demand Signals: U.S. consumer sentiment fell to 51 as inflation worries and weaker business expectations returned, while July inflation and producer prices cooled enough to shift rate-hike odds toward a hold. Semis Momentum: Memory stocks rallied after Sandisk sized the flash market and authorized big buybacks; Micron also surged with analysts projecting further DRAM/NAND gains and targets near $1,625. AI Infrastructure Power Crunch: Dell’Oro says agentic AI and inference workloads are expanding front-end data center switch demand, while Nvidia-linked commentary highlights the scale of power needs for AI buildouts. Geopolitics & Commodities: Wheat prices jumped about 25% on Black Sea export disruptions; gold firmed on hopes of de-escalation around Iran even as oil risk stays in focus. Energy & Markets: Europe snapped a four-week rally as crude rose and tensions returned, despite strong earnings. Defense Industrial Policy: Reliance and Rolls-Royce plan an indigenous AMCA aero-engine ecosystem in India, aiming to cut dependence on foreign suppliers. Local Economy: Rising U.S. grocery prices are again testing Trump and Republicans ahead of midterms.

AI Infrastructure & Power Crunch: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang warned data centers will hit hard power limits, even as chipmakers position GPUs as “investable” infrastructure and big finance lines up for $500B+ AI compute funding. Semis Earnings & Valuation Pressure: Cisco reported accelerating AI networking orders (AI infra revenue guidance raised), but the market still punished AI-exposed chip names after Applied Materials’ upbeat outlook failed to impress. Rates, Retail, and FX: US retail sales fell and consumer sentiment weakened, pushing the dollar lower and shifting bets toward a rate hold. Oil & Geopolitics: Oil climbed on US threats of an “indefinite” Iran naval blockade and economic pressure, while Hormuz risk kept supply worries alive. Europe Gas Weather Risk: Forecasters say only an exceptionally strong El Niño could ease Europe’s LNG needs this winter, otherwise demand likely stays higher. Space Economy: Novaspace pegged in-orbit services at ~$3B over the next decade, while AST SpaceMobile faced scrutiny over whether backlog converts fast enough. Earnings Watch: Intel raised ~$20B via share sale for foundry revival; several smaller firms posted mixed Q2 results. Food & Climate: Kenya faces below-normal rainfall risk, and Alaska’s Bristol Bay sockeye outlook points to more, smaller fish.

Energy Shock to Consumer Budgets: With the US war with Iran now stretching into its sixth month, gasoline is staying near the politically sensitive $4 level; the national average regular petrol price hit about $4.006 per gallon (Aug 10), and EIA cut its earlier 2026 gasoline decline forecast to an average of $3.78 vs $3.10 in 2025, while energy prices are up sharply year-on-year and overall inflation has risen. Household Demand Cooling: FMCG spending growth is projected to slow to just 1–2% in 2026 as shoppers get selective; Worldpanel by Numerator says FMCG spend is up only 1.6% through June and even fell in Q2, with more consumers expecting their finances to worsen. Medtech Growth Watch (Forecasts): A wave of market outlooks points to continued expansion across healthcare hardware and services—maternal-infant equipment (to $8.82B by 2030), mechanical thrombectomy devices (9% CAGR), mammography devices (to $3.81B by 2030), mechanical ventilators (to $9.54B in 2026), and medical device connectivity (to $12.76B by 2030). Infection-Control & Lab Tech: Masks are forecast to keep shrinking (down to $6.54B by 2030), while lab and sterilization categories look steadier, including low-temperature plasma sterilizers (10.7% CAGR) and lyophilization equipment (11.1% CAGR).

Oil & Geopolitics: The US signaled it could keep an “indefinite” naval blockade of Iran, while Strait of Hormuz traffic stays thin—yet crude still slid as demand worries and a big US crude build hit sentiment. Energy Outlook: OPEC cut 2026 oil demand growth to 580k bpd and the IEA flagged deeper demand contraction, reinforcing a softer demand-for-supply balance. Markets & Rates: Softer US PPI and steadier inflation expectations helped the S&P 500 notch a record close, with tech leading as rate-hike fears eased. AI & Semis: Memory makers rallied on the back of AI-driven demand optimism, but warnings persist that memory supply tightness could keep prices elevated into 2027. Housing: Australia’s big-city prices are under pressure, with Sydney and Melbourne most exposed in a downside scenario. China Consumer Demand: Chinese outbound travel forecasts were trimmed as economic gloom makes travelers more selective. Corporate Earnings: CXAI reported 79% sequential revenue growth and strong ARR metrics; Newsmax posted its first profit since going public; several homebuilders and AI-infrastructure-linked firms updated investors on mixed execution and guidance. Crypto/Tech Infrastructure: Conflux set a v3.1.0 hard fork for Aug. 25, while AI infrastructure spending remains a key swing factor for risk appetite.

Oil & Energy: Brent fell to $87.69 and WTI to $81.97 as OPEC cut 2026 demand growth to 580k bpd and the IEA expects consumption to contract by 1.6m bpd, while a big U.S. crude inventory build added pressure; Geopolitics: Iran–U.S. tensions keep supply risks elevated, limiting downside; Copper & Weather Risk: Antofagasta slid after Chilean storms forced a Los Pelambres output downgrade, though half-year results beat on higher realized prices; Rates & Inflation: Australia’s RBA is holding at 4.35% after earlier hikes, with officials saying inflation remains too high and further tightening is possible; Consumer & Retail: Wayfair reported post-COVID order strength and plans another store, while Tapestry lifted its annual outlook on resilient Coach demand but flagged weakness at Kate Spade; Tech & Markets: S&P 500 year-end forecasts cluster around ~6% gains, with dispersion widening; Capital Markets & Corporate: Cellebrite named a new CEO after a planned transition; Housing & Local Economy: Queen Anne’s County approved a $45k feasibility study for a multi-sport tourism complex; Climate & Agriculture: Norfolk’s drought relief is coming with a multi-day rain forecast after extreme heat.

US Markets & Rates: Stocks climbed after July CPI matched expectations, easing September hike fears while AI infrastructure earnings (CoreWeave, Super Micro, Nebius, Lumentum) kept tech bid strong. Oil & Energy Forecasts: The IEA cut 2026 oil demand by 1.6 mb/d on Strait of Hormuz disruption and higher fuel prices, while Opec also trimmed demand growth; prices stayed rangebound as supply risks battled weaker consumption. US Gas Outlook: EIA flagged record 2026 natural gas output, driven by Permian and Haynesville growth and LNG export ramp-ups. Housing & Credit: Mortgage rates dipped after in-line CPI, but affordability stayed tight for first-time buyers; ANZ warned Australia’s tax changes are cooling mortgage demand and flagged softer housing activity. AI & Software Economics: Canva slowed AI rollout after compute costs rose faster than expected, highlighting the industry shift from “token cost” to unit economics. AI Chips Volatility: Cerebras shares fell after mixed results—cloud surged, but hardware revenue dropped—showing demand is uneven across the stack. Global Macro Tightening: Mongolia’s central bank raised its key rate to 12.5% to tackle inflation and excess liquidity. Agriculture: USDA lifted US corn and soybean production estimates, while wheat outlook tightened; energy costs also weighed on farm margins. Telecom Capital Returns: Telstra announced a A$1bn buyback alongside modest profit growth. Real Assets & Energy Deals: Journey Energy agreed to sell Northwest Alberta assets for $28m to fund Duvernay light oil development.

US CPI Focus: Wall Street heads into Wednesday’s July CPI with futures slightly higher as investors weigh whether inflation is cooling enough to keep the Fed on hold, while oil’s recent jump from Hormuz risk keeps the rate outlook jittery. Energy Shock & Forecast Cuts: The IEA warns oil stockpiles are “rapidly depleting,” cutting 2026 supply and demand outlooks as Strait of Hormuz disruption and maritime attacks keep inventories draining. AI Earnings Lift Risk Appetite: Tech-led gains show up in futures and Asia after upbeat AI infrastructure updates (CoreWeave, Super Micro, Foxconn), reinforcing demand for compute and servers. Data Centers as Finance Theme: Bank of America unveils a $250B critical infrastructure push spanning data centers, semis, power and transport, while Allianz flags the data center insurance market could more than double to £17.8bn by 2030. Geopolitics Hits Real Assets: UBS flags Europe and footwear as JD Sports’ weak spots ahead of its update, and On Holding shares tumble on slower Americas growth. Crypto Volatility: Bitcoin rebounds above $64k after a leveraged-position flush ahead of CPI. Local Governance: New Mexico lawmakers discuss a potential statewide data center moratorium, targeting projects like Project Jupiter.

AI Compute Earnings: CoreWeave shares jumped in extended trading after a Q2 beat, with revenue up 112% to $2.58B and a narrowed adjusted loss, while backlog topped $104B and guidance was raised—fueling a broader AI data-center optimism. AI Infrastructure Spending: CoreWeave also lifted its 2026 capex outlook to $35B–$39B, underscoring how “neocloud” demand is driving major compute buildouts. Macro Outlook—New Zealand: S&P Global upgraded its NZ growth momentum view, keeping 2028–2029 growth at 2.4% and expecting inflation to drift back toward the Reserve Bank’s 1–3% comfort zone, with the cash rate seen peaking around 3%. Housing Pressure—Australia: CBA posted record cash earnings but warned mortgage demand has cooled sharply since May tax changes, with new applications down and investor demand weaker. Housing Pressure—US: Existing home sales fell again in July as higher mortgage rates and tight supply kept inventories low, with the 30-year fixed rate rising to 6.69%. Geopolitics & Commodities: Ukraine cut its 2026/27 grain export forecast by up to 12% after Odesa port attacks, while oil and rates stayed sensitive to Middle East headlines. Energy & Markets: RBA held rates at 4.35% but left the door open to more hikes, keeping property and borrowing in focus. Corporate/Legal: TWO (Two Harbors) hit back at a lawsuit from UWMC tied to its MSR-focused REIT deal process.