AGP Executive Report

RBNZ Rate Call: New Zealand’s RBNZ meets July 8 and economists are split on whether it hikes the OCR (currently 2.25%) or pauses again, with inflation forecasts still above target. Energy Demand Outlook: Shell lifts its LNG demand view, forecasting nearly 700m tonnes by 2050, while warning growth depends on regas and pipeline buildout in Asia. FX and Fed Bets: Japan keeps yen-intervention readiness in focus as the dollar slides after softer US jobs data, shifting rate-hike odds. Semiconductor Trade: Hong Kong handled over half of China’s chip imports in early 2026, underscoring its role as a high-tech middleman amid US-China tensions. AI Data Center Strain: US grid operators face repeated emergency actions as AI load surges, forcing diesel backup rules on major regions. Markets and Memory Chips: Samsung is reportedly set to raise DRAM prices ~20% in Q3, while Intel gets a bullish HSBC $200 target and Micron’s rally narrative stays tied to AI memory demand. India Growth + Weather Risk: Vietnam’s Q2 growth beats forecasts, while India’s monsoon brings red alerts and extreme rainfall risk around Mumbai. Crypto and Policy Crosscurrents: Bitcoin edges higher on weaker jobs data; Ethereum Institutional launches as EU MiCA takes effect and US stablecoin rules near deadlines. Labor and Power Reliability: A PECO strike begins after a failed deal, raising outage-response concerns during heat and storm season. Real Estate Signals: India’s realty sees a six-year inflow peak in H1, but affordability remains tight in cities like Hyderabad.

India EV Momentum: India’s retail EV sales hit a new high in June at 306,027 units (+63% YoY), led by record electric 2Ws (193,663; +75% YoY) and strong e-PV growth (31,358; +106% YoY), signaling demand shifting beyond metros. Gold Outlook: Gold rebounded for the first weekly gain since May, up ~3.1% on softer US jobs data and easing rate-hike expectations; the World Gold Council sees H2 2026 range trading around $4,100/oz with upside to $4,500–$5,000 if risks worsen. Memory Chips: Samsung is reportedly planning a ~20% DRAM price hike in Q3 as AI server demand and tight supply keep pressure on chip pricing. Critical Minerals & Copper: KGHM launched its “KGHM 2.0” $8.55B expansion to boost EU copper output and cut reliance on third-party supply, aligning with the EU Critical Raw Materials push. Weather Disruption (Mumbai): IMD red alert for Mumbai-MMR brought school/college closures and road shutdowns amid very heavy rainfall and waterlogging. Oil & Shipping: Persian Gulf flows are recovering, pushing oil toward a surplus narrative and reviving forecasts of potential downside toward ~$60/bbl.

US Energy Politics: Exxon and Chevron are heading into earnings with profits forecast to surge to the highest since 2022, but the bigger risk is a Trump-led push to force gasoline prices down, with the administration even hinting at possible action over “gouging.” Eurozone Growth Watch: France’s manufacturing output fell sharply in May, with weakness spreading beyond volatile transport equipment into broader industrial categories and especially automotive. China LNG Outlook: El Niño is expected to lift wind generation and slightly reduce hydropower weakness, nudging Kpler’s 2026 China LNG demand forecast down just 0.1 mt to 63.7 mt—enough to keep spot Asian LNG pricing broadly steady. Africa Fiscal Stress: Falling oil price expectations are squeezing budgets across African crude exporters, with Nigeria’s heavy reliance on oil-linked foreign exchange making the hit more acute. Commodities & Mining: Mining investors are resetting valuation multiples as gold and copper stabilize, while majors look to buy into junior pipelines; the U.S. DOE also injected $75m into critical minerals. Markets & FX: The dollar is set for its biggest weekly slide in months after softer US jobs data cooled Fed hike odds, lifting the euro and giving the yen some breathing room. Crypto Sentiment: Bitcoin remains stuck in a wide $58k–$62k band, keeping “bubble” debate alive as ETF flows and liquidity dynamics fight for direction. Housing (India): Lower borrowing costs are supporting affordability in most Indian cities, though Mumbai and NCR still sit above the affordability benchmark. Hydrogen Policy: Germany’s hydrogen council pushed demand ramp-up to the early 2030s due to policy and geopolitical uncertainty, even as long-run demand stays high. Corporate Moves (Philippines): Ayala is deploying ₱5bn to buy more Ayala Land shares to stabilize valuations after a selloff. Tech/AI Capex: Applied Materials’ rally is tied to continued AI infrastructure spending, while Camtek flags strong 2026/27 demand from HBM makers for advanced inspection and metrology. Market Forecast Angle: Oil, rates, and energy policy are the main cross-currents—oil price swings are feeding both inflation and fiscal stress, while softer jobs data is shifting the rate path and currency moves.

Global Markets: Asian stocks rebounded as a softer-than-expected U.S. jobs report cooled Fed hike expectations, lifting tech-heavy indexes after recent sell-offs. FX & Rates: The dollar headed for its biggest weekly drop in 12 weeks; the yen steadied above 161 per dollar, but traders still watch intervention risk. U.S. Labor: June payroll growth slowed to 57,000 and prior months were revised down, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% as participation dropped—keeping the “fragile” hiring mood intact. Oil & Commodities: Citi flagged Brent could slide toward $60 as Hormuz risk fades and flows normalize, while shipping and inventories adjust. Energy/Weather: France braced for another heatwave, driving Lidl queues for discounted air conditioners; Mumbai faced heavy monsoon rain with an orange alert and localized waterlogging. Corporate/AI: Microsoft and Meta surged on strong AI-linked results and guidance, adding hundreds of billions in market value. Sector Forecasts: IGD expects the UK “away from home” market to grow, but inflation will drive most value gains; multiple industry reports point to continued expansion in areas like automotive composites, medical composites, and antidiabetic drugs.

Jobs & Rates: The U.S. added 57,000 jobs in June (below forecasts) and unemployment slipped to 4.2%, easing Fed rate-hike expectations; mortgage rates dipped to 6.28% APR, but affordability remains tight. Labor Market Oddities: Leisure & hospitality shed 61,000 jobs despite World Cup-related hopes, reinforcing a “second gear” labor picture. Markets & FX: European stocks rose as weaker payrolls pushed back Fed tightening bets; the dollar fell and oil eased on improving U.S.-Iran talks. Energy Costs: Tennessee gas prices slid to $3.38 on average, supporting holiday travel sentiment. Corporate/Travel Demand: Aeroméxico reported June traffic weakness, with domestic demand down 13% and load factor down 3 points to 82.7%. Tech & Enterprise Software: Veeam and Rubrik topped Gartner’s backup/data protection rankings as GenAI is expected to be embedded in most platforms by 2029. Emerging Markets: Citi says investor appetite is returning to Zambia after its default, spotlighting copper, energy, and agriculture. Gold & Crypto: Gold jumped above $4,100 amid the softer jobs backdrop, while Bitcoin traded higher on the same data.

Malaysia Macro Outlook: IPP Financial Advisers kept Malaysia’s 2026 GDP growth forecast at 4.6%, citing resilient domestic demand and a gradual recovery in external trade, with semiconductors, data centers, and AI infrastructure supporting investment. FX & Rates Watch: The dollar eased and the yen firmed ahead of U.S. payrolls, with markets pricing one Fed hike by October and watching for a jobs surprise that could swing yields and the currency. Oil & Energy: Oil slid for a third day after Qatar said indirect Iran-U.S. talks on the Strait of Hormuz showed “positive progress,” while oversupply expectations and potential OPEC+ output target hikes weighed on prices; Shell also flagged LNG demand growth of ~65% by 2050. IMF Updates: The IMF cut Israel’s 2026 growth forecast to 3.5% on regional tensions, while saying Jordan’s reform program remains on track despite conflict-driven pressures. AI & Markets: StarFive and LECARC partnered to co-develop RISC-V server CPUs for edge/agentic AI, as AI sales assistants move from pilots to day-to-day workflow tools. Travel & Consumer Signals: China rolled out faster, more digital tax refunds from July 1, and UK glamping demand is rising as travelers prioritize experiences and wellness. Uranium: Myriad Uranium began Phase II drilling at its Copper Mountain project in Wyoming, targeting Lucky Cliff and other historical resource areas.

Macro Watch: Markets were steady as investors tracked Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the ECB’s Sintra forum, with Warsh stressing eased inflation risks and avoiding rate “forward guidance,” while US data showed ISM near a four-year high and ADP private payrolls rising 98k (below forecasts). Energy & Rates: Brent slipped toward ~$71 and gold held near $4,000 as US-Iran indirect talks improved sentiment; meanwhile, oil’s move is feeding through to mortgage costs and inflation expectations. US Economy: Construction spending inched up 0.1% in May, but year-on-year it fell 1.5%, with higher mortgage rates still weighing on new single-family building. Labor: ADP’s June slowdown in hiring (with planned layoffs down sharply) points to a labor market that’s stable but cooling. Commodities & Food: USDA cut US sweet cherry output forecast to 311k tons (down ~17%) after freeze damage; citrus flavors are forecast to grow from $1.4B (2026) to $2.3B by 2033 on clean-label demand. Corporate Finance: Talos priced $800M of 8% second-priority secured notes due 2034 to fund its Gulf of America acquisition and refinance 2029 notes. Housing (Australia): Analysis flags Australia’s ninth housing downturn in 30 years, but suggests it may be shorter-lived than past cycles. Auto Demand: US light-vehicle sales forecast for June is 16.1M SAAR, with affordability pressures and used-car resilience shaping summer results.

Crypto Outlook: Citi cut its 12-month forecasts for bitcoin and ether, citing weaker investor appetite, negative ETF flows, and slow progress on U.S. digital-asset legislation—pushing bitcoin to $82,000 (from $112,000) and ether to $2,240 (from $3,175). UK Housing: Nationwide data showed UK house prices stalled for a second straight month in June, with rates still high after the Iran-war shock; the market is bracing for a quieter, more price-sensitive summer. Manufacturing Pulse (Europe): France’s final June PMI edged higher to 51.2, while Italy’s input cost pressures eased and its PMI slipped to 52.2—both pointing to uneven recovery amid supply-chain disruption. Energy & Inflation: Ofgem raised the UK energy price cap by 13%, and Nigeria’s LPG prices fell sharply as supply improved. AI & Markets: Meta is reportedly building an experimental prediction app, while Dell’Oro says AI RAN will likely be an enabler rather than a market-expander. Tech/Infrastructure: AEMO’s 2026 plan flags 64 GW of battery storage needed by 2050, and Goldman Sachs expects oil to return to surplus as Strait of Hormuz flows normalize.

China Macro: June manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 (from 50.0), with production and demand improving and high-tech manufacturing pushing the index higher. US Rates & Oil: ECB pressure eased as energy prices fell fast, but a small later hike still looks plausible; oil also slipped as markets priced less Iran-driven urgency. US Labor: JOLTS showed job openings at a two-year high (7.594m) while hiring stayed soft, and consumers increasingly saw jobs as “hard to get.” Global Shipping: Maersk lifted full-year guidance on resilient container demand, signaling freight tailwinds may persist. Markets & Tech: Risk-on trading extended into quarter-end as semis and AI infrastructure demand kept tech leading, even as “AI fatigue” worries lingered. Housing Shock (Australia): Sydney and Melbourne home prices fell in June after Labor tax changes and higher rates hit investor sentiment. Energy/Policy (US): Trump urged gasoline retailers to cut pump prices toward ~$2.50/gal, warning of “big problems” if they don’t. Agriculture Risk: Screwworm cases in Texas/New Mexico raised concern, but economists largely say impacts are not yet catastrophic. Corporate Moves: Avicanna promoted Nick Hilborn to CFO; Rush Enterprises added a Nasdaq Texas dual listing. Company Call: ICICI Securities reiterated a Buy on Exide Industries with a Rs 480 target, citing lead-acid strength and lithium-ion ramp-up.

Data Centers Regulation: Snohomish County in Washington imposed a six-month freeze on new data centers on unincorporated land while it drafts rules, echoing similar pauses in Skagit and Seattle as AI-driven buildouts strain land, energy, and water. Heat Risk to Consumers: A Midwest heat wave forced cancellations and opened cooling centers, with extreme heat warnings expected to push into the Ohio Valley and beyond—raising near-term demand for cooling and resilience planning. Oil Market Repricing: Morgan Stanley cut Brent forecasts as Strait of Hormuz flows recover faster than expected, shifting focus toward a 2027 surplus risk and lower prices. Energy Demand Outlook: Shell expects global LNG demand to rise about 65% by 2050, with Asia and data centers driving growth even as Hormuz disruptions reshaped 2026 trade patterns. AI Chip Cycle: S&P says South Korea’s earnings are increasingly dependent on semiconductors, with an AI-driven memory supercycle expected to last at least through 2028; Micron and SanDisk surged on the supply crunch. Corporate Disclosure: Australia’s Rex was found to have breached continuous disclosure rules tied to a 2023 profit forecast, underscoring governance risk for investors. Shipping Economics: Maersk lifted its 2026 profit outlook as container demand and spot rates strengthened, while intra-Asia congestion easing hints at a waning mini-peak. Clean Mobility: Fuel-cell commercial vehicles and hydrogen fuel cells remain on a fast growth path as zero-emission freight mandates and hydrogen cost declines support scale-up.

Australia Politics: Melissa McIntosh doubled down on her Liberal “rebrand” push, arguing the party’s values aren’t landing with voters. Auto Trade: The EU is preparing new tariffs on China-made PHEVs, a move that could raise costs for European buyers and shift leverage in the EV-to-hybrid pivot. Energy Markets: U.S. natural gas prices slid on ample supply and strong storage, while Permian gas output is rising faster than oil, tightening the supply-demand balance. Commodities & FX: The dollar climbed on AI-driven demand and higher-rate expectations; UBS reiterated a bullish gold path, citing Fed shifts, a weaker dollar, and central bank buying. Markets & Stocks: Microsoft is set for its worst month since 2008 amid AI-spending and disruption worries; Lam Research hit a record after Bank of America lifted its target. Shipping: Maersk upgraded 2026 earnings guidance on strong container demand, while South Carolina Ports paused Leatherman Terminal operations and consolidated volumes. Corporate Moves: Tilray agreed to acquire HelloMD to expand direct-to-patient medical cannabis in Canada; Concentrix reported steady revenue but weaker operating income. Macro Watch: Bank of America forecast 110,000 jobs added in June, raising the odds of Fed hikes—an important swing factor for risk assets and crypto. Weather Impact: A Midwest heat wave canceled outdoor plans and opened cooling centers, with hotter conditions spreading east.

UK Housing & Rates: Bank of England data shows UK mortgage approvals fell to the fewest since Dec 2023 in May, with consumer lending growing less than expected—an early sign higher borrowing costs are biting. Eurozone Inflation Outlook: S&P Global lifted 2026 inflation forecasts for the eurozone and UK but cut growth, pointing to limited further rate hikes and a fragile demand picture. AI & Credit Markets: Hyperscalers are issuing more non-dollar bonds as AI-driven capex keeps funding needs elevated, reshaping global corporate debt flows. Semiconductors & Memory Prices: Jefferies warns memory chip prices could jump 40–50% in Q3 2026 and rise further in Q4 and 2027 as AI data centers lock in supply. Energy Markets: The IEA says oil demand has shifted after the Iran-related easing, with exports rerouting and inventories drawn down—supporting a more stable near-term outlook. Automotive: Cox Automotive expects GM, Ford and Tesla to lose US market share in Q2 despite resilient overall new-vehicle demand. Enterprise AI Governance: A report flags an “Agency Shift” in FP&A where AI initiates work, but governance and human accountability must keep up. Defense Tech Forecasts: A new market outlook projects the autonomous weapons market reaching $30.16B by 2030, driven by drones/robots and R&D. Real Assets: DWS says European real estate could deliver ~9% annual returns over five years, citing tight supply and structural demand.

AI & Semiconductors: Micron’s AI-driven memory surge sent its market value briefly above Meta and Tesla, with revenue quadrupling to $41.45B and guidance pointing to continued data-center demand. Rates & Inflation: ECB’s Schnabel said inflation risks still lean upward despite easing energy prices, keeping pressure on further rate hikes. Fed/Markets: A Reuters-style poll view has the Fed holding rates this year, while broader market chatter focuses on whether AI earnings can offset inflation, Fed risks, oil uncertainty, and rich valuations. Housing & Construction: Victoria’s new home builds fell to the lowest in nearly a decade, while ANZ expects RBNZ to hike OCR three more times and house prices to drift 2% lower in 2026. Consumer Pulse: A consumer-spending read-through flagged that real disposable income gains were partly distorted by one-off farm payments, leaving households “not out of the woods.” Commodities Outlook: Gold refining eyes a potential $6,000/oz path, and uranium analysts argue the $150/lb breakout is structural amid a supply deficit. Regional Growth: Qatar’s ICT market is forecast to more than double to $37.74B by 2031 on 5G, cloud, and AI. Corporate/Investing: BHP shares face a momentum pause with analysts split, while Applied Materials got a bullish BofA target lift to $720 on a bigger semiconductor TAM.

Qatar ICT Expansion: Mordor Intelligence forecasts Qatar’s ICT market more than doubling to QR137.63bn by 2031, led by 5G rollout, sovereign cloud spend, and AI/Arabic LLMs under the National Digital Agenda 2030. Middle East Oil Supply: Rystad says Gulf shut-in production has fallen sharply and expects full regional supply recovery by end-2026, with the UAE boosting Fujairah export capacity via expanded pipelines. Crypto Risk/Return: Hyperliquid’s HYPE gets a bullish 2031 valuation range (base ~$100–$160; weighted ~$145) while Zcash (ZEC) targets ~$850 by 2031; Cardano’s DeFi TVL rises despite a $20m SecondFi hack, and Bitcoin slips back under $60k amid tech-led market stress. Markets & Rates: ANZ still expects three RBNZ OCR hikes this year and a ~2% house-price drift lower, even as oil prices ease; in the US, job growth stayed resilient (May +172k) but hiring remains subdued. Energy/Commodities: Crude unwinds war premium fast (WTI near $69) as supply disruptions fade; copper debate turns to physical availability despite refined-stock surplus forecasts. Data Centers Water Gap: Texas lawmakers say most proposed data centers won’t disclose water use, raising policy risk as the pipeline grows. Tech/Business Forecasts: Meta explores a points-based prediction app (“Arena”) and DraftKings launches its own prediction exchange (DKeX), while Omdia projects RGB LED TVs to reach 13% of global TV revenue by 2030.

RBNZ Rate Path & Housing: ANZ says oil’s quick drop won’t stop three more RBNZ OCR hikes (July, September, October) to 3%, while house prices drift about 2% lower this year. Crypto Risk Mood: Bitcoin stays pinned below the 200-week moving average near $60K, with traders watching $61K resistance and $58.2K support; US spot Bitcoin ETF outflows hit $445M in one day as crypto equities (Coinbase, Circle) slump harder than the S&P 500. Meta Enters Prediction Markets: Meta is exploring a points-based prediction app (“Arena”) and talks with Polymarket/Kalshi, aiming to avoid real-money gambling friction. US Rates & Jobs: Economists expect the job market to stay steady in 2H26 with unemployment around 4.3%, but hiring remains subdued. Energy Pivot: Crude unwinds war premium fast as WTI slides toward $69, signaling a shift from shortage fears to glut worries. Agriculture Weather Watch: Corn futures rise on drier early-July forecasts and export data, while El Niño-linked outlook keeps traders focused on weather-driven swings. Markets & Forecasts in Tech: Nasdaq weakness reflects AI-led selling pressure even as Micron’s results help pockets of the chip trade.

Corporate Earnings & Commodities: Crookes Brothers warned of another tough year after a R274m loss (vs R89.8m profit), citing Middle East-driven input cost pressure; sugar pricing stays soft as currency strength and imports weigh, while macadamias remain the biggest drag. Housing & Rent Policy: An Addis Ababa rental study says keeping annual inflation under 10% could stabilize rent growth around an 11.24% benchmark, aiming to reduce the need for heavy rent controls. Gold & Rates: Gold’s selloff deepened as analysts point to higher real yields and a firmer dollar; near-term targets get trimmed, but long-term bullish calls largely remain. EVs & Market Share: NIO’s William Li says China’s plugin vehicle market could top 90% by 2030, with BEVs at 90%—a major bet on full-electric dominance. Solar Regulation: Residential solar is shifting toward third-party ownership (leases/PPAs), with regulators and lawmakers scrutinizing consumer protection and oversight. Energy & Weather Risk: Crude unwound the Iran war premium, sliding toward $69 as the Strait of Hormuz reopens; meanwhile a revised Atlantic hurricane outlook cut risk, but insurers and operators are urged to prepare. Markets & Tech Sentiment: Nasdaq weakness tied to AI drag and a chip-led rout; Bitcoin closed sub-$60k amid broader risk-off. Prediction Markets: DraftKings launched its DKeX prediction exchange, touting $3.4b annualized consumer volume, aiming to improve economics after its Railbird deal. Industrial Forecasts: BMI trimmed 2026 steel price to $620/t on weaker demand; Omdia forecasts RGB LED TVs reach 13% of global TV revenue by 2030.